GDP Growth Rate

Macroeconomics
Updated Apr 2026 • Has calculator

The percentage change in a country's gross domestic product over a given period.

What is GDP Growth?

The GDP growth rate measures how fast an economy is expanding or contracting by comparing the size of gross domestic product in two periods. Positive growth indicates economic expansion; negative growth for two consecutive quarters meets the common definition of a recession. Real GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) is the most watched figure, published quarterly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the US. Investors use GDP growth to assess the business cycle, forecast corporate earnings, and anticipate central bank policy decisions. Annual global GDP growth has averaged about 3–4% in the post-war era.

Formula

GDP Growth = (GDP_end ÷ GDP_start − 1) × 100

Worked Example

Worked example — United States Real GDP — 2023

Full year 2023 (FRED/BEA)

Step 1  US Real GDP Q4 2022: $26,950.5B (chained 2017 dollars)
Step 2  US Real GDP Q4 2023: $27,357.2B (chained 2017 dollars)
Step 3  GDP Growth = ($27,357.2 / $26,950.5 − 1) × 100 = 1.51%
Step 4  → The US economy grew 1.51% in real terms from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023

Source: FRED — Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1) (2024-01-25)

Calculate GDP Growth

GDP in the starting period (billions USD)

GDP in the ending period (billions USD)

GDP Growth Rate

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Not investment advice.

How to Interpret GDP Growth

< 0
Contraction — economic decline; recession risk
0 – 2
Slow Growth (0–2%) — below trend; stagnation risk
2 – 4
Moderate Growth (2–4%) — near trend; healthy
> 4
Strong Growth (>4%) — above trend; inflationary risk
Sources
  1. FRED — Real Gross Domestic Product
  2. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP